It’s everyone’s favorite time of year, when I tell all of you what I predict is going to happen in 2026. In past years I’ve actually been pretty spot on, and I feel good about the predictions I’m making this year. Don’t be surprised if you see some of these on Polymarket. You can thank me later when you get a big payout.
What Am I Predicting in 2026?
1️⃣ Language Continues to be written by internet culture
Over the last few years the word of the year has shifted from whatever is in the news zeitgeist, like “unprecedented” and “quarantine,” to more internet-native slang like “brainrot,” “6-7,” and “ragebait.” I think this trend continues in 2026.
2️⃣ Macro creators become a thing of the past
The days of the MrBeast and PewDiePie level YouTubers with hundreds of millions of followers are a thing of the past. We’ve consistently seen a widening in the middle, where creators are still bringing in millions of views but are more popular within their niches rather than across all of YouTube. This is still great news for creators who double down on their community and niche, despite having a clear ceiling on the platform.
3️⃣ More celebrities enter live-streaming (athletes, music artists, comedians, actors)
Sparking up a stream has become the trend. Traditional celebrities are recognizing the power and attention that live streamers have, and I don’t think Bieber and Cam Skattebo will be the last to stream on Twitch.
4️⃣ Gambling regulations become more strict (video game loot crates and online gambling advertisements)
It feels like regulations in online gambling are coming, especially when so many of the top games on Steam include some form of gambling.
5️⃣ TikTok Shop doubles in size, Whatnot grows, and brick and mortar stores invest into live shopping
Do I think liveshopping will go nuclear like in China? No. But I wouldn’t be surprised if TikTok Shop continues to grow and more creators turn to platforms like Whatnot. Uniqlo has incorporated liveshopping in some of their brick and mortar stores, and in 2026 I would bet that other brick and mortar stores test how well liveshopping does.
6️⃣ Vertical live-streaming doesn’t take off
In 2025 we saw both Twitch and YouTube offer a vertical livestream component on their platforms, but I’m not convinced many creators are going to use this feature. TikTok seems to have won the vertical live-streaming audience for now, and if anything, we’ll see more people use those streams for discoverability.
7️⃣ YouTube will continue to move back to Era 1
If you’ve read any of my predictions in years past, you would have noticed that I called that creators were going to slow down their edits (thanks Outdoor Boys). Content is becoming more niche, and I don’t think the YouTube audience is craving these huge events the way they were in 2022 and 2023.
8️⃣ Social media bans happen in other countries besides Australia
This week Australia banned social media for users under the age of 16. Facebook, Instagram, Kick, Reddit, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, Twitch, X, and YouTube said they will comply with the law to avoid steep fines. I think other countries will look to Australia as a test case for whether strict age verification actually works or not.
9️⃣ The battle for smart TV heats up, and YouTube TV takes more of the Lion’s share
YouTube makes up 13% of connected TV (with nearly half of YouTube viewership coming from TV), which I would predict becomes higher in 2026. Especially as content continues to make its way to FAST channels and Tubi, YouTube will continue to take more of the viewership share in 2026.
🔟 Sport leagues separate digital rights and live-streamers record from the sidelines
Calling it now, the NFL, MLB, NBA, and other leagues will renegotiate their digital rights. Right now, if a live-streamer goes to a sporting event they’re not able to film the field or wrestling ring. I think this changes in 2026. Theo Von and Sketch have been covering Vandy games from the sidelines, but I think they’ll actually turn the camera on the field next year. Some leagues will even allow creators to have their own broadcasts.
1️⃣1️⃣ AI models will get better, the models compete more, but broad adoption does not take off (it stays flat)
2025 was a huge year for AI, especially for video and image generation. However, I don’t think it had the impact we all thought it was going to have. The Sora app came and went, and aside from the occasional reel or TikTok I see, artists are choosing to use AI in their content creation process, but I don’t think any of it replaced creators. This trend continues in 2026, staying relatively flat.
Also, Google continues to be the frontrunner in the AI race.
1️⃣2️⃣ Video podcasts on Spotify stay stagnant while YouTube continues to skyrocket
I say time and time again that I would bet on YouTube any day of the week as the platform for content over the next 10 years. Very bullish on podcasts finding their home on YouTube.
1️⃣3️⃣ More marketing dollars flow into experiential marketing
Obviously you heard we acquired Experiential Supply Company, so we’re betting big on in-person experiences. People want to get outside and touch grass, and more marketing spend shifts to experiences in 2026.
And lastly, GTA VI doesn’t come out in 2026. Sorry to all you sweaty gamers out there, it’s time to stop coping.
This week’s LOCK IN is about the Church of Latter-day Saints. Yes, you read this correctly. This week Luke from the Outdoor Boys YouTube channel joined the advisory council for the Church of LDS. I don’t know much about the advisory council for the LDS, but I do know that Luke Nichols is a legend. Solid choice.
Kim K Gets Her Fortnite Skin
Typical Gamer in 2026?
Rizzler, A.J., and Big Justice on AEW
Give our boys an Oscar ASAP.
Wendy Ortiz x Ice Spice
Brings us back to American Dream on September 4, 2022.
